tubbydistrib/stake-monthly-bonus

Finance

A Python model and guide for estimating Stake's monthly VIP bonus and its net value after expected losses.

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Overview

This repository explains how Stake's monthly VIP bonus works and provides a Python model for roughly estimating its size. The README outlines the inputs that appear to influence the bonus: total wager during a 7–42 day window, VIP tier, net profit or loss, and play consistency, plus the house edge of the games played. It distinguishes the monthly bonus from weekly bonuses, rakeback, and welcome deposit matches, and it breaks down the two delivery formats—reloads with roughly a 5-day claim window and coupons valid for up to about 3 months README lines 9–25 README lines 96–99.

The main practical tool is a relative model, not a prediction of Stake's actual private formula. It is useful for comparing your own months and tiers and for checking whether a bonus outweighs the expected loss embedded in the wagering that generated it README lines 116–173.

Quick Start

prepare a Python 3 environment with no third-party dependencies. Copy the estimate_monthly_bonus and net_value functions from the README into a .py file or interactive session, then call them with your own values.

result = estimate_monthly_bonus(
    total_wager=5000,
    vip_tier="bronze",
    net_result=-200,
    active_days=12,
)
print(result)

print(net_value(bonus=result["estimated_bonus"], wager=5000, house_edge=0.03))

The function returns a breakdown containing the tier, base bonus, loss cashback, consistency ratio, consistency multiplier, and estimated bonus. The net_value call subtracts expected loss from the estimated bonus; a negative result means the bonus does not cover the expected cost of the qualifying wagering. The README's own examples use net_result negative for a losing month and house_edge defaults to 0.03 README lines 120–168.

Before relying on a real bonus, the README's pre-claim checklist asks you to confirm email verification and marketing email status, account standing, delivery format, and the applicable expiry window README lines 174–188.

Constraints

The model uses illustrative multipliers and rates (for example, 10% loss cashback and 0.8x–1.2x consistency multipliers). These are approximations of publicly observed behavior, not Stake's published formula; actual amounts are determined internally README lines 255–257. The README also notes disagreement about the rakeback base rate—whether 3.5% applies to house edge or to total wagers—and recommends checking your own VIP panel before modeling it README lines 81–95.

The material includes a responsible-participation section stating that bonuses are retention mechanisms and that increasing wagering solely to raise a monthly bonus generally has negative expected value README lines 235–254. Jurisdiction-specific legality and platform terms must be checked independently.

HotRepo's take

This is a single-purpose explainer repository with no recorded daily ranking on HotRepo. Its 295 stars were all gained in a new-list snapshot on 2026-11-01, with a growth window of about one hour and eight minutes; that single observation does not establish a trend. The project's value rests on the transparency of its relative model and its net-value framing rather than on any published formula from Stake—the README is explicit that the true calculation is private.

Written by AI from the project's README, updated . The project's own docs are the source of truth.